Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 1 1 0
16 Jackson St. SWAC 246 16 0
16 Vermont AE 241 16 0
8 Mississippi St. SEC 33 8 0
9 Maryland B10 11 2 -7
5 Kansas B12 24 5 0
12 Liberty CUSA 64 13 1
4 Auburn SEC 4 1 -3
13 High Point BSth 85 14 1
6 North Carolina ACC 31 7 1
11 Iowa B10 63 13 2
3 Iowa St. B12 10 2 -1
14 Arkansas St. SB 84 14 0
7 Missouri SEC 19 4 -3
10 San Diego St. MWC 54 12 2
2 Michigan B10 22 5 3
15 Youngstown St. Horz 199 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Purdue B10 15 3 2
16 LIU NEC 284 16 0
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 178 16 0
8 Cincinnati B12 55 12 4
9 Mississippi SEC 20 5 -4
5 Louisville ACC 27 6 1
12 Yale Ivy 74 13 1
4 Arkansas SEC 36 9 5
13 Miami OH MAC 147 15 2
6 Michigan St. B10 7 2 -4
11 Memphis Amer 51 12 1
3 Kentucky SEC 16 3 0
14 Furman SC 141 15 1
7 USC B10 62 13 6
10 Georgia SEC 38 9 -1
10 Virginia ACC 107 14 4
2 BYU B12 26 6 4
15 Little Rock OVC 226 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Houston B12 2 1 0
16 Northern Colorado BSky 127 15 -1
8 Vanderbilt SEC 47 11 3
9 Creighton BE 35 8 -1
5 Alabama SEC 6 1 -4
12 Illinois St. MVC 132 15 3
4 Illinois B10 17 4 0
13 Utah Valley WAC 116 15 2
6 Texas Tech B12 8 2 -4
11 VCU A10 34 8 -3
3 Tennessee SEC 5 1 -2
14 Charleston CAA 153 15 1
7 Wisconsin B10 13 3 -4
10 Oklahoma SEC 40 10 0
2 Connecticut BE 32 7 5
15 Siena MAAC 253 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Florida SEC 3 1 0
16 Navy PL 276 16 0
8 N.C. State ACC 126 15 7
9 Baylor B12 30 7 -2
5 Gonzaga WCC 9 2 -3
12 UC Santa Barbara BW 148 15 3
4 UCLA B10 23 5 1
13 McNeese Slnd 58 12 -1
6 Ohio St. B10 37 9 3
11 Miami FL ACC 193 16 5
11 Texas A&M SEC 18 4 -7
3 Arizona B12 12 2 -1
14 South Dakota St. Sum 137 15 1
7 Oregon B10 28 6 -1
10 Texas SEC 44 10 0
2 St. John's BE 14 3 1
15 Florida Gulf Coast ASun 179 16 1
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