Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed βˆ†
1 Duke ACC 3 1 0
16 Siena MAAC 180 16 0
8 Ohio St. B10 25 6 -2
9 TCU B12 46 11 2
5 St. John's BE 13 3 -2
12 Northern Iowa MVC 78 13 1
4 Kansas B12 21 5 1
13 Cal Baptist WAC 105 14 1
6 Louisville ACC 19 4 -2
11 South Florida Amer 48 11 0
3 Michigan St. B10 10 2 -1
14 North Dakota St. Sum 119 15 1
7 UCLA B10 28 6 -1
10 UCF B12 54 12 2
2 Connecticut BE 9 2 0
15 Furman SC 184 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed βˆ†
1 Arizona B12 2 1 0
16 LIU NEC 215 16 0
8 Villanova BE 33 8 0
9 Utah St. MWC 27 6 -3
5 Wisconsin B10 23 5 0
12 High Point BSth 85 14 2
4 Arkansas SEC 18 4 0
13 Hawaii BW 109 14 1
6 BYU B12 24 5 -1
11 N.C. State ACC 36 9 -2
11 Texas SEC 31 7 -4
3 Gonzaga WCC 14 3 0
14 Kennesaw St. CUSA 149 15 1
7 Miami FL ACC 30 7 0
10 Missouri SEC 53 12 2
2 Purdue B10 8 2 0
15 Queens ASun 186 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed βˆ†
1 Michigan B10 1 1 0
16 UMBC AE 187 16 0
16 Howard MEAC 196 16 0
8 Georgia SEC 35 8 0
9 Saint Louis A10 34 8 -1
5 Texas Tech B12 20 5 0
12 Akron MAC 71 13 1
4 Alabama SEC 12 2 -2
13 Hofstra CAA 89 14 1
6 Tennessee SEC 15 3 -3
11 Miami OH MAC 90 14 3
11 SMU ACC 49 11 0
3 Virginia ACC 17 4 1
14 Wright St. Horz 139 15 1
7 Kentucky SEC 29 6 -1
10 Santa Clara WCC 37 9 -1
2 Iowa St. B12 7 2 0
15 Tennessee St. OVC 191 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed βˆ†
1 Florida SEC 6 1 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 281 16 0
16 Lehigh PL 292 16 0
8 Clemson ACC 39 9 1
9 Iowa B10 22 5 -4
5 Vanderbilt SEC 11 2 -3
12 McNeese Slnd 65 13 1
4 Nebraska B10 16 3 -1
13 Troy SB 150 15 2
6 North Carolina ACC 32 7 1
11 VCU A10 42 10 -1
3 Illinois B10 4 1 -2
14 Penn Ivy 155 15 1
7 Saint Mary's WCC 26 6 -1
10 Texas A&M SEC 38 9 -1
2 Houston B12 5 1 -1
15 Idaho BSky 156 15 0
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