Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 4 1 0
16 Navy PL 181 16 0
16 Southern SWAC 178 16 0
8 Missouri SEC 35 8 0
9 USC B10 22 5 -4
5 Michigan St. B10 32 7 2
12 Akron MAC 74 13 1
4 Iowa St. B12 9 2 -2
13 UC Santa Barbara BW 118 15 2
6 N.C. State ACC 25 6 0
11 Memphis Amer 55 12 1
3 Alabama SEC 17 4 1
14 Siena MAAC 149 15 1
7 Auburn SEC 36 9 2
10 Iowa B10 39 9 -1
2 Michigan B10 10 2 0
15 Youngstown St. Horz 142 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Connecticut BE 5 1 0
16 Vermont AE 191 16 0
8 Baylor B12 19 4 -4
9 Indiana B10 21 5 -4
5 UCLA B10 29 6 1
12 High Point BSth 86 14 2
4 Gonzaga WCC 8 2 -2
13 Troy SB 116 15 2
6 Wisconsin B10 18 4 -2
11 VCU A10 61 12 1
3 BYU B12 16 3 0
14 Utah Valley WAC 119 15 1
7 Creighton BE 45 11 4
10 Mississippi St. SEC 33 8 -2
2 Kentucky SEC 1 1 -1
15 St. Thomas Sum 204 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Purdue B10 7 2 1
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 248 16 0
16 LIU NEC 282 16 0
8 San Diego St. MWC 30 7 -1
9 Mississippi SEC 26 6 -3
5 Texas Tech B12 14 3 -2
12 Yale Ivy 80 13 1
4 Tennessee SEC 13 3 -1
13 Northern Iowa MVC 103 14 1
6 Arkansas SEC 27 6 0
11 Utah St. MWC 38 9 -2
11 Cincinnati B12 43 10 -1
3 Louisville ACC 12 2 -1
14 Towson CAA 132 15 1
7 Vanderbilt SEC 15 3 -4
10 Virginia ACC 54 12 2
2 Arizona B12 11 2 0
15 Eastern Kentucky ASun 212 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Houston B12 2 1 0
16 Portland St. BSky 170 16 0
8 Oregon B10 53 12 4
9 Texas SEC 37 9 0
5 North Carolina ACC 23 5 0
12 Liberty CUSA 79 13 1
4 St. John's BE 20 5 1
13 McNeese Slnd 108 14 1
6 Kansas B12 28 6 0
11 Clemson ACC 24 5 -6
11 Georgia SEC 31 7 -4
3 Illinois B10 3 1 -2
14 Little Rock OVC 192 16 2
7 Ohio St. B10 34 8 1
10 Saint Mary's WCC 44 10 0
2 Florida SEC 6 1 -1
15 Furman SC 165 15 0
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