Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Connecticut BE 7 2 1
16 Colgate PL 186 16 0
8 Auburn SEC 34 8 0
9 SMU ACC 40 10 1
5 Tennessee SEC 14 3 -2
12 William & Mary CAA 114 15 3
4 Kansas B12 17 4 0
13 Illinois St. MVC 78 13 0
6 Arkansas SEC 27 6 0
11 Ohio St. B10 36 9 -2
11 Miami FL ACC 37 9 -2
3 Michigan St. B10 15 3 0
14 Quinnipiac MAAC 153 15 1
7 St. John's BE 19 4 -3
10 LSU SEC 38 9 -1
2 Duke ACC 6 1 -1
15 Vermont AE 195 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Arizona B12 2 1 0
16 LIU NEC 204 16 0
8 Saint Mary's WCC 32 7 -1
9 UCLA B10 33 8 -1
5 Florida SEC 13 3 -2
12 Akron MAC 56 12 0
4 Nebraska B10 22 5 1
13 Liberty CUSA 105 14 1
6 USC B10 39 9 3
11 Tulsa Amer 82 14 3
3 Illinois B10 9 2 -1
14 Northern Colorado BSky 150 15 1
7 Utah St. MWC 31 7 0
10 Baylor B12 30 7 -3
2 Gonzaga WCC 5 1 -1
15 Furman SC 152 15 0

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Michigan B10 1 1 0
16 Howard MEAC 269 16 0
8 Georgia SEC 28 6 -2
9 UCF B12 45 11 2
5 Texas Tech B12 21 5 0
12 Utah Valley WAC 81 14 2
4 North Carolina ACC 23 5 1
13 Arkansas St. SB 132 15 2
6 Iowa B10 18 4 -2
11 Butler BE 48 11 0
11 Oklahoma SEC 53 12 1
3 Houston B12 12 2 -1
14 Lipscomb ASun 146 15 1
7 Villanova BE 25 6 -1
10 N.C. State ACC 26 6 -4
2 Vanderbilt SEC 8 2 0
15 St. Thomas Sum 139 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Iowa St. B12 3 1 0
16 Milwaukee Horz 205 16 0
16 Grambling St. SWAC 245 16 0
8 Clemson ACC 35 8 0
9 Seton Hall BE 47 11 2
5 Louisville ACC 11 2 -3
12 Yale Ivy 83 14 2
4 Alabama SEC 16 3 -1
13 High Point BSth 94 14 1
6 Virginia ACC 24 5 -1
11 Indiana B10 29 6 -5
3 BYU B12 10 2 -1
14 Hawaii BW 104 14 0
7 Kentucky SEC 20 5 -2
10 Saint Louis A10 41 10 0
2 Purdue B10 4 1 -1
15 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 123 15 0
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