Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Connecticut BE 9 2 1
16 Colgate PL 230 16 0
8 Auburn SEC 30 7 -1
9 SMU ACC 35 8 -1
5 Tennessee SEC 19 4 -1
12 William & Mary CAA 125 15 3
4 Kansas B12 14 3 -1
13 Illinois St. MVC 99 14 1
6 Arkansas SEC 16 3 -3
11 Miami FL ACC 40 10 -1
11 Ohio St. B10 37 9 -2
3 Michigan St. B10 10 2 -1
14 Quinnipiac MAAC 200 16 2
7 St. John's BE 21 5 -2
10 LSU SEC 54 12 2
2 Duke ACC 2 1 -1
15 Vermont AE 223 16 1

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Arizona B12 3 1 0
16 LIU NEC 205 16 0
8 Saint Mary's WCC 28 6 -2
9 UCLA B10 42 10 1
5 Florida SEC 6 1 -4
12 Akron MAC 67 13 1
4 Nebraska B10 13 3 -1
13 Liberty CUSA 89 14 1
6 USC B10 48 11 5
11 Tulsa Amer 62 13 2
3 Illinois B10 5 1 -2
14 Northern Colorado BSky 148 15 1
7 Utah St. MWC 25 6 -1
10 Baylor B12 49 11 1
2 Gonzaga WCC 11 2 0
15 Furman SC 186 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Michigan B10 1 1 0
16 Lindenwood OVC 252 16 0
16 Howard MEAC 219 16 0
8 Georgia SEC 41 10 2
9 UCF B12 50 12 3
5 Texas Tech B12 17 4 -1
12 Utah Valley WAC 88 14 2
4 North Carolina ACC 34 8 4
13 Arkansas St. SB 147 15 2
6 Iowa B10 24 5 -1
11 Oklahoma SEC 53 12 1
11 Butler BE 85 14 3
3 Houston B12 4 1 -2
14 Lipscomb ASun 173 16 2
7 Villanova BE 27 6 -1
10 N.C. State ACC 23 5 -5
2 Vanderbilt SEC 12 2 0
15 St. Thomas Sum 117 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Iowa St. B12 7 2 1
16 Milwaukee Horz 267 16 0
16 Grambling St. SWAC 281 16 0
8 Clemson ACC 33 8 0
9 Seton Hall BE 47 11 2
5 Louisville ACC 15 3 -2
12 Yale Ivy 75 13 1
4 Alabama SEC 18 4 0
13 High Point BSth 90 14 1
6 Virginia ACC 20 5 -1
11 Indiana B10 38 9 -2
3 BYU B12 22 5 2
14 Hawaii BW 103 14 0
7 Kentucky SEC 31 7 0
10 Saint Louis A10 26 6 -4
2 Purdue B10 8 2 0
15 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 83 14 -1
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