Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 4 1 0
16 North Carolina Central MEAC 303 16 0
16 North Dakota St. Sum 202 16 0
8 VCU A10 44 10 2
9 UCF Amer 34 8 -1
5 Mississippi St. SEC 20 5 0
12 Liberty ASun 57 12 0
4 Virginia Tech ACC 12 2 -2
13 Saint Louis A10 105 14 1
6 Maryland B10 24 5 -1
11 Belmont OVC 49 11 0
11 Temple Amer 69 13 2
3 LSU SEC 19 4 1
14 Yale Ivy 78 13 -1
7 Louisville ACC 23 5 -2
10 Minnesota B10 47 11 1
2 Michigan St. B10 3 1 -1
15 Bradley MVC 160 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 2 1 0
16 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 211 16 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 210 16 0
8 Syracuse ACC 40 10 2
9 Baylor B12 35 8 -1
5 Marquette BE 33 8 3
12 Murray St. OVC 52 12 0
4 Florida St. ACC 14 3 -1
13 Vermont AE 76 13 0
6 Buffalo MAC 22 5 -1
11 St. John's BE 86 14 3
11 Arizona St. P12 60 12 1
3 Texas Tech B12 5 1 -2
14 Northern Kentucky Horz 95 14 0
7 Nevada MWC 26 6 -1
10 Florida SEC 25 6 -4
2 Michigan B10 6 1 -1
15 Montana BSky 137 15 0

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 North Carolina ACC 8 2 1
16 Iona MAAC 198 16 0
8 Utah St. MWC 39 9 1
9 Washington P12 48 11 2
5 Auburn SEC 11 2 -3
12 New Mexico St. WAC 53 12 0
4 Kansas B12 17 4 0
13 Northeastern CAA 89 14 1
6 Iowa St. B12 16 3 -3
11 Ohio St. B10 45 11 0
3 Houston Amer 13 3 0
14 Georgia St. SB 123 15 1
7 Wofford SC 18 4 -3
10 Seton Hall BE 58 12 2
2 Kentucky SEC 7 2 0
15 Abilene Christian Slnd 152 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Virginia ACC 1 1 0
16 Gardner Webb BSth 163 15 -1
8 Mississippi SEC 50 12 4
9 Oklahoma B12 32 7 -2
5 Wisconsin B10 15 3 -2
12 Oregon P12 28 6 -6
4 Kansas St. B12 21 5 1
13 UC Irvine BW 74 13 0
6 Villanova BE 30 7 1
11 Saint Mary's WCC 31 7 -4
3 Purdue B10 9 2 -1
14 Old Dominion CUSA 114 15 1
7 Cincinnati Amer 29 6 -1
10 Iowa B10 37 9 -1
2 Tennessee SEC 10 2 0
15 Colgate Pat 126 15 0


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