Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 San Diego St. MWC 4 1 0
16 North Florida ASun 164 15 -1
8 Rutgers B10 31 7 -1
9 Oklahoma B12 38 9 0
5 Marquette BE 26 6 1
12 Yale Ivy 46 11 -1
4 Auburn SEC 37 9 5
13 Wright St. Horz 115 15 2
6 Ohio St. B10 9 2 -4
11 Arizona St. P12 58 12 1
3 Seton Hall BE 19 4 1
14 Colgate Pat 127 15 1
7 Iowa B10 23 5 -2
10 Wichita St. Amer 35 8 -2
2 Duke ACC 5 1 -1
15 Montana BSky 131 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 3 1 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 191 16 0
16 Robert Morris NEC 219 16 0
8 Illinois B10 30 7 -1
9 Florida SEC 32 7 -2
5 Arizona P12 13 3 -2
12 Furman SC 78 13 1
4 Villanova BE 20 5 1
13 North Texas CUSA 71 13 0
6 Michigan St. B10 11 2 -4
11 Georgetown BE 52 12 1
11 USC P12 57 12 1
3 West Virginia B12 7 2 -1
14 South Dakota St. Sum 111 14 0
7 Houston Amer 14 3 -4
10 Purdue B10 25 6 -4
2 Florida St. ACC 22 5 3
15 Winthrop BSth 130 15 0

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Kansas B12 1 1 0
16 Austin Peay OVC 156 15 -1
8 Wisconsin B10 29 6 -2
9 Rhode Island A10 43 10 1
5 Oregon P12 24 5 0
12 Vermont AE 65 13 1
4 Kentucky SEC 28 6 2
13 New Mexico St. WAC 118 15 2
6 BYU WCC 18 4 -2
11 Cincinnati Amer 44 10 -1
3 Louisville ACC 10 2 -1
14 UC Irvine BW 107 14 0
7 Texas Tech B12 21 5 -2
10 Xavier BE 42 10 0
2 Maryland B10 8 2 0
15 Little Rock SB 128 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Baylor B12 2 1 0
16 Saint Peter's MAAC 199 16 0
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 240 16 0
8 LSU SEC 36 9 1
9 Saint Mary's WCC 34 8 -1
5 Colorado P12 17 4 -1
12 Utah St. MWC 39 9 -3
12 East Tennessee St. SC 56 12 0
4 Creighton BE 15 3 -1
13 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 110 14 1
6 Butler BE 27 6 0
11 Virginia ACC 50 12 1
3 Penn St. B10 16 3 0
14 Hofstra CAA 121 15 1
7 Michigan B10 12 2 -5
10 Northern Iowa MVC 41 10 0
2 Dayton A10 6 1 -1
15 Bowling Green MAC 155 15 0


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