Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 4 1 0
16 North Carolina Central MEAC 328 16 0
16 North Dakota St. Sum 171 16 0
8 VCU A10 38 9 1
9 UCF Amer 116 15 6
5 Mississippi St. SEC 56 12 7
12 Liberty ASun 93 14 2
4 Virginia Tech ACC 47 11 7
13 Saint Louis A10 117 15 2
6 Maryland B10 17 4 -2
11 Belmont OVC 83 14 3
11 Temple Amer 95 14 3
3 LSU SEC 37 9 6
14 Yale Ivy 142 15 1
7 Louisville ACC 2 1 -6
10 Minnesota B10 78 13 3
2 Michigan St. B10 1 1 -1
15 Bradley MVC 127 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 7 2 1
16 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 238 16 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 302 16 0
8 Syracuse ACC 53 12 4
9 Baylor B12 15 3 -6
5 Marquette BE 13 3 -2
12 Murray St. OVC 120 15 3
4 Florida St. ACC 11 2 -2
13 Vermont AE 79 13 0
6 Buffalo MAC 107 14 8
11 St. John's BE 92 14 3
11 Arizona St. P12 88 14 3
3 Texas Tech B12 14 3 0
14 Northern Kentucky Horz 130 15 1
7 Nevada MWC 104 14 7
10 Florida SEC 26 6 -4
2 Michigan B10 27 6 4
15 Montana BSky 186 16 1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 North Carolina ACC 6 1 0
16 Iona MAAC 193 16 0
8 Utah St. MWC 55 12 4
9 Washington P12 45 11 2
5 Auburn SEC 30 7 2
12 New Mexico St. WAC 77 13 1
4 Kansas B12 10 2 -2
13 Northeastern CAA 138 15 2
6 Iowa St. B12 48 11 5
11 Ohio St. B10 8 2 -9
3 Houston Amer 28 6 3
14 Georgia St. SB 167 16 2
7 Wofford SC 121 15 8
10 Seton Hall BE 19 4 -6
2 Kentucky SEC 5 1 -1
15 Abilene Christian Slnd 292 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Virginia ACC 3 1 0
16 Gardner Webb BSth 221 16 0
8 Mississippi SEC 54 12 4
9 Oklahoma B12 22 5 -4
5 Wisconsin B10 49 11 6
12 Oregon P12 18 4 -8
4 Kansas St. B12 50 12 8
13 UC Irvine BW 105 14 1
6 Villanova BE 12 2 -4
11 Saint Mary's WCC 41 10 -1
3 Purdue B10 9 2 -1
14 Old Dominion CUSA 135 15 1
7 Cincinnati Amer 24 5 -2
10 Iowa B10 52 12 2
2 Tennessee SEC 21 5 3
15 Colgate Pat 125 15 0


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