Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 3 1 0
16 North Carolina Central MEAC 303 16 0
16 North Dakota St. Sum 200 16 0
8 VCU A10 37 9 1
9 UCF Amer 46 11 2
5 Mississippi St. SEC 20 5 0
12 Liberty ASun 63 13 1
4 Virginia Tech ACC 11 2 -2
13 Saint Louis A10 105 14 1
6 Maryland B10 24 5 -1
11 Belmont OVC 50 12 1
11 Temple Amer 77 13 2
3 LSU SEC 17 4 1
14 Yale Ivy 82 14 0
7 Louisville ACC 18 4 -3
10 Minnesota B10 47 11 1
2 Michigan St. B10 4 1 -1
15 Bradley MVC 164 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 2 1 0
16 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 207 16 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 218 16 0
8 Syracuse ACC 35 8 0
9 Baylor B12 41 10 1
5 Marquette BE 28 6 1
12 Murray St. OVC 52 12 0
4 Florida St. ACC 14 3 -1
13 Vermont AE 80 13 0
6 Buffalo MAC 22 5 -1
11 Arizona St. P12 62 13 2
11 St. John's BE 81 14 3
3 Texas Tech B12 9 2 -1
14 Northern Kentucky Horz 100 14 0
7 Nevada MWC 25 6 -1
10 Florida SEC 27 6 -4
2 Michigan B10 5 1 -1
15 Montana BSky 137 15 0

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 North Carolina ACC 6 1 0
16 Iona MAAC 199 16 0
8 Utah St. MWC 33 8 0
9 Washington P12 53 12 3
5 Auburn SEC 13 3 -2
12 New Mexico St. WAC 51 12 0
4 Kansas B12 21 5 1
13 Northeastern CAA 79 13 0
6 Iowa St. B12 16 3 -3
11 Ohio St. B10 45 11 0
3 Houston Amer 15 3 0
14 Georgia St. SB 111 14 0
7 Wofford SC 19 4 -3
10 Seton Hall BE 56 12 2
2 Kentucky SEC 7 2 0
15 Abilene Christian Slnd 145 15 0

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Virginia ACC 1 1 0
16 Gardner Webb BSth 169 16 0
8 Mississippi SEC 42 10 2
9 Oklahoma B12 38 9 0
5 Wisconsin B10 12 2 -3
12 Oregon P12 43 10 -2
4 Kansas St. B12 23 5 1
13 UC Irvine BW 74 13 0
6 Villanova BE 26 6 0
11 Saint Mary's WCC 30 7 -4
3 Purdue B10 10 2 -1
14 Old Dominion CUSA 113 14 0
7 Cincinnati Amer 32 7 0
10 Iowa B10 36 9 -1
2 Tennessee SEC 8 2 0
15 Colgate Pat 129 15 0


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