Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Duke ACC 1 1 0
16 Grambling St. SWAC 307 16 0
16 Wagner NEC 212 16 0
8 Xavier BE 68 13 5
9 Indiana B10 19 4 -5
5 UCLA P12 39 9 4
12 South Dakota St. Sum 101 14 2
4 Kansas St. B12 14 3 -1
13 Lafayette Pat 308 16 3
6 Ohio St. B10 29 6 0
11 Oklahoma St. B12 62 13 2
11 Notre Dame ACC 64 13 2
3 Villanova BE 22 5 2
14 Northern Kentucky Horz 133 15 1
7 Houston Amer 42 10 3
10 North Carolina St. ACC 32 7 -3
2 Kentucky SEC 11 2 0
15 Iona MAAC 162 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 6 1 0
16 Lipscomb ASun 129 15 -1
8 LSU SEC 46 11 3
9 Miami FL ACC 21 5 -4
5 Florida St. ACC 8 2 -3
12 Old Dominion CUSA 100 14 2
4 TCU B12 37 9 5
13 New Mexico St. WAC 104 14 1
6 Purdue B10 13 3 -3
11 Davidson A10 82 14 3
3 Auburn SEC 10 2 -1
14 UNC Greensboro SC 88 14 0
7 Mississippi St. SEC 26 6 -1
10 Arizona St. P12 41 10 0
2 Virginia ACC 4 1 -1
15 Montana BSky 72 13 -2

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Kansas B12 2 1 0
16 Lehigh Pat 152 15 -1
16 North Carolina Central MEAC 292 16 0
8 Louisville ACC 55 12 4
9 Nebraska B10 23 5 -4
5 Butler BE 31 7 2
12 Buffalo MAC 50 12 0
4 Syracuse ACC 16 3 -1
13 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 154 15 2
6 Texas Tech B12 20 5 -1
11 Loyola Chicago MVC 59 12 1
3 Virginia Tech ACC 17 4 1
14 Penn Ivy 141 15 1
7 Florida SEC 28 6 -1
10 Arizona P12 52 12 2
2 Michigan St. B10 12 2 0
15 UC Davis BW 247 16 1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 North Carolina ACC 3 1 0
16 Radford BSth 149 15 -1
8 Cincinnati Amer 45 11 3
9 Seton Hall BE 57 12 3
5 West Virginia B12 24 5 0
12 USC P12 65 13 1
12 Marquette BE 34 8 -4
4 Michigan B10 7 2 -2
13 Northeastern CAA 92 14 1
6 Clemson ACC 25 6 0
11 Wisconsin B10 15 3 -8
3 Nevada MWC 5 1 -2
14 Murray St. OVC 117 15 1
7 Oregon P12 18 4 -3
10 Maryland B10 36 9 -1
2 Tennessee SEC 9 2 0
15 Vermont AE 124 15 0


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