Bracketology

KenPom Bracketology

Legend
3+ Overseeded
2 Overseeded
Within 1 seed
2 Underseeded
3+ Underseeded
Why was 11 seed Washington favored over 3 seed New Mexico in 2010? What impact does 'mis-seeding' have on the Tournament? Looking at the brackets through the lens of advance computer ratings such as KenPom reveals insights about the Committee and where to spot more probable 'upsets.'

Here we use a subjective methodology to give teams what their 'KenPom seed' might be, then spot how far it varies from their given seed. Rather than splitting all teams into strict groups of 4 for a seed line, we created more liberal parameters for the seed lines: e.g. a 10 'KenPom seed' is given to any team ranked between 114 and 165. Stated differently, the #4, #5, or #6 KenPom-ranked team is around '1-seed quality' and the #100 team is around '14-seed quality.' The cells below are color-coded to indicate how overseeded or underseeded a team is.
Seed Min Max Avg
1 1 6 4
2 7 12 9
3 13 16 15
4 17 19 17
5 20 24 21
6 25 29 27
7 30 32 32
8 33 35 32
9 36 39 38
10 40 44 41
11 45 49 48
12 50 61 50
13 62 80 72
14 81 113 89
15 114 165 138
16 166 350 193

East

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Dayton A10 4 1 0
16 Robert Morris NEC 207 16 0
8 Colorado P12 35 8 0
9 Florida SEC 32 7 -2
5 Butler BE 25 6 1
12 Texas B12 61 12 0
12 Richmond A10 46 11 -1
4 Maryland B10 11 2 -2
13 Akron MAC 82 14 1
6 Penn St. B10 26 6 0
11 UCLA P12 78 13 2
11 N.C. State ACC 50 12 1
3 Villanova BE 18 4 1
14 Hofstra CAA 108 14 0
7 West Virginia B12 10 2 -5
10 Utah St. MWC 41 10 0
2 Florida St. ACC 15 3 1
15 Northern Kentucky Horz 144 15 0

West

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Gonzaga WCC 2 1 0
16 Prairie View A&M SWAC 213 16 0
16 North Carolina Central MEAC 272 16 0
8 LSU SEC 37 9 1
9 Oklahoma B12 36 9 0
5 Michigan B10 16 3 -2
12 Yale Ivy 58 12 0
4 Oregon P12 17 4 0
13 New Mexico St. WAC 91 14 1
6 BYU WCC 13 3 -3
11 Indiana B10 34 8 -3
3 Seton Hall BE 20 5 2
14 Eastern Washington BSky 124 15 1
7 Arizona P12 19 4 -3
10 Texas Tech B12 21 5 -5
2 San Diego St. MWC 6 1 -1
15 UC Irvine BW 106 14 -1

Midwest

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Kansas B12 1 1 0
16 Siena MAAC 145 15 -1
8 Houston Amer 14 3 -5
9 Marquette BE 31 7 -2
5 Auburn SEC 33 8 3
12 Liberty ASun 79 13 1
4 Wisconsin B10 22 5 1
13 North Texas CUSA 77 13 0
6 Iowa B10 23 5 -1
11 East Tennessee St. SC 56 12 1
3 Duke ACC 5 1 -2
14 Belmont OVC 109 14 0
7 Providence BE 40 10 3
10 Arizona St. P12 63 13 3
2 Kentucky SEC 29 6 4
15 North Dakota St. Sum 112 14 -1

South

Seed Team Conf KP Rank KP Seed ∆
1 Baylor B12 3 1 0
16 Winthrop BSth 140 15 -1
8 Saint Mary's WCC 38 9 1
9 Rutgers B10 28 6 -3
5 Ohio St. B10 8 2 -3
12 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 100 14 2
4 Louisville ACC 9 2 -2
13 Vermont AE 76 13 0
6 Virginia ACC 42 10 4
11 Cincinnati Amer 44 10 -1
3 Michigan St. B10 7 2 -1
14 Bradley MVC 107 14 0
7 Illinois B10 30 7 0
10 USC P12 55 12 2
2 Creighton BE 12 2 0
15 Little Rock SB 129 15 0


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